The Looming Afghanistan Disaster. 2nd Update

AfghanistanTheir unindicted  co-conspirators, the Drive-by-Media, have largely swept this administration’s multitude of failures and gaffes under the rug. God help us, but all this may be about to change and the sheer incompetence with which Obama and his administration is stumbling through history could possibly and tragically crash down on us like a zillion tons of bricks and American blood. History is about to crash on Obama and on us The curt and unceremonious eviction of U.S. forces from our base in Uzbekistan, Karshi Khanabad airbase (better known as “K2″ to U.S. forces) received less press than the installation of a new swing set and monkey bars on the White House lawn. This event’s importance, however, can hardly be underestimated. In between Wednesday belinis, Obama was busy shoving socialism down our throats while the Russians were handing out over two billion dollars in financing and “investments” to the Uzbekis. During his February 3rd visit to Moscow, Uzbekistan’s President Kurmanbek Bakiev managed to secure a “US$300 million loan” to support Kyrgyzstan’s hard-pressed government budget plus a pledge of $1.7 billion in investment in the country’s energy industry. In addition, Moscow agreed to write off $180 million of Kyrgyz debt in return for a 48% stake in a defense industry factory plant that produces components for torpedoes, and offered additional financial assistance worth $150 million.” Let’s get this straight! The Russians don’t need to invest $180 million dollars in an obsolete Uzbeki torpedo factory when their own factories are rusting out and their unemployment rate is over 8%. They sure as heck don’t need to invest $1.7B in Uzbeki oil fields when the world is awash in crude and OPEC is cutting production left and right. Sure it may be a good long-term investment, but at the very least the timing is questionable. And if the question is why are they making these investments now, the answer is to get themselves in a position of leverage in order to be able to manipulate the U.S. This, of course, begs the question: manipulate the US to do what? On March 4th the first shipment of supplies went through Russian territories to our troops in Afghanistan. Amateurs are concerned with tactics, professionals with logistics

specialforces-on-horse

US SF soldiers on horseback DOD photo

The Obama administration is upping the ante in Afghanistan by increasing the U.S. troop presence by 17,000 additional troops. (For the record, that’s about half of what Patraeus and the theater commanders asked for.) So we are inserting the equivalent of another division into Afghanistan and we are counting on the beneficence of Vladimir Putin to be able to supply that division with a good part of their logistics. Oh yeah, that’s not a disaster waiting to happen. Putin wants to even the score A devoted communist, a dedicated KGB agent and fervent Soviet patriot, Putin, like all the Red Army, suffered deeply in the aftermath of their loss in Afghanistan. One can only imagine Putin’s blood boiling at the televised images of a hand full of U.S. agents and special forces troops mounting cavalry charges with a laptop strapped to the saddle and routing the Taliban in less time than anyone dared dream. (A great book on the beginning of the U.S. operations in Afghanistan is First In by Gary Schroen and I could not recommend it with higher accolades.)

From a rooftop position, Marines with G Company, 2nd Battalion, 1st Marine Regiment, aim at a building from which shots had been fired in Fallujah, Iraq, April 6, 2004. U.S. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Nathan Alan Heusdens

From a rooftop position, Marines with G Company, 2nd Battalion, 1st Marine Regiment, aim at a building from which shots had been fired in Fallujah, Iraq, April 6, 2004. U.S. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Nathan Alan Heusdens

Putin watched as U.S. troops, Marines to be specific, rewrote the book on urban warfare in Iraq’s cities, including the now legendary battles of Falujah, and their historic success stood in stark contrast to the Chinese Fire Drill that Russian troops conducted in Chechnya. Putin saw the endless successful HRT special forces operations conducted by U.S. troops throughout the GWOT and fumed as the world shook its head in disbelief as his very own sinister Alpha Group conducted the now infamous and tragic Movie Theater raid that resulted in 115 hostages killed. Finally, in desperation Putin tried to show the world that the Russians can undertake modern maneuver warfare and ordered the invasion of the Georgian region of South Osetia. Alas, even this relatively straight and clear-cut mission conducted in their own back yard with the most rudimentary of logistical requirements just about turned into a cluster f**k resulting in the loss of between five and twenty aircraft including shockingly enough a Tu-22 long-range bomber. Putin will spring the trap Putin has been watching all these setbacks tear down the myth of the Russian armed forces and we are to now believe that he will help the U.S. win further military glory in Afghanistan? As sure as the sun will rise tomorrow, Putin will do the exact opposite. He is wringing his sweaty, grubby hands in anticipation of administering the coup de grace to the U.S. forces in Afghanistan. He will seem to object, at first, at the mere thought of allowing anything but non-military supplies to travel through Russia. Then begrudgingly he will agree to allow a small amount of military supplies to get through. Then more and more until there is critical mass. At that point he will wait for the Afghans to mount an offense, perhaps even coordinate with them and suddenly he will come up with a pretext to cut off the supply lines. Will Obama have the fortitude to stand up to Putin and save the U.S. Forces in Afghanistan? Yeah sure and Trump is building a luxury tower in the Obama organized Chicago’s 9th Ward If all this just happens to coincide with attacks on the Pakistan supply lines, whatever is still left of them, then airlifting supplies will be the only thing standing between our troops and destruction. The Khyber pass is by no means a guaranteed supply route and lately it’s been more closed than open. I am not sure if there ever was such a massive effort to airlift supplies on such a large scale in such hostile terrain. I have no doubt that our forces will find a way to make it work, but I also have no doubt that the terrorists will also find a way to attack such a soft target as an air supply train and extract a heavy toll. Already we see that the door of acceptance for a humiliating U.S. defeat is held open by shameful and demoralizing statements from perennial appeasers such as the newly Sharia indoctrinated British and the Islam overrun Canadians. Is anyone surprised? They can’t wait to gently push he all too willing Obama right trough that door. Of course the Taliban can be defeated! I want to say one thing before we go any further. Of course the Taliban can and will be defeated. One way to do it is to put Afghanistan under USMC command just as the Marines requested, and let the big dogs eat. Like all elite light infantry Marines are able to operate with the minimum of supplies and still deliver the firepower that special forces cannot match. The best trained mountain warfare troops in the world , and possessing unique Combined Arms and Combined Action capabilities the Marines will have the Taliban in paradise licking lamb chops and virgins faster than you can say Salam Alaikum. (and no I don’t care how you spell it an Arabic).

Rare Pic,  USMC MWTC Witner Training

Rare Pic, USMC MWTC Witner Training

A Marine regiment will go where it wants to. Not long ago a great American, then Colonel Chesty Puller in the midst of the frozen hell that was the Chosin Reservoir, declared for all times, “there are not enough chinamen in the world to stop a fully armed Marine regiment from going wherever they want to go”. Last time I checked, there are a lot less Afghans than there are Chinese and we’ll have a lot more than one Marine regiment in Afghanistan. Will Obama hide behind a slogan? Putin is watching and calculating and salivating at the thought of dealing a devastating blow to his forever arch enemy – the United States. He knows that the weak U.S. president has had the seed of defeat planted in his brain by the Brits and the Canucks. Putin knows damn well that the Soviet Union did not survive the war in Afghanistan, and he dreams of the day when he’ll cause us tol meet the same fate. What will Oprah’s the One do when Putin grabs him by the collar and tells him “Вы не должны проходить” ( I hope that means “Thou shall not pass” in Russian). Update Its a god thing that the Russians have invested billions of dollars in Uzbeki oil fields Russia to cut oil exports, increase domestic consumption: official MOSCOW, March 15 (Xinhua) — Russia will cut its oil exports and add up domestic consumption amid the global financial crisis and slipping energy price, a senior energy official said on Sunday. “We’ll be cutting oil exports while increasing domestic consumption and expanding oil refining,” Russian media quoted Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin as saying at a conference of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna. Russia, which accounts for about 10 percent of world oil output, will ask the OPEC to coordinate steps with other countries and could consider joining OPEC in case all the agreements reached are observed, Sechin said. The OPEC meeting came amid the global economic meltdown and the oil price’s falling. Some oil producing countries are pushing for a further output cut in the meeting to save the market after a 4.2 million barrels cut last year. An OPEC’s report has predicted that global demand would fall by1.01 million barrels per day (bdp) in 2009, revising its earlier forecast of a fall by 580,000 bpd.

Update II

Obama and Medvedev announced today that the Russian Federation will allow us to further expand our access to Russian air space to include the transportation of  military logistics and troops to Afghanistan. Previously the agreement was restricted only  to “non-military” supplies. Far from a good thing this mkes us even more dependable on the Russians for our effort in Afghanistan. I  predicted just this four months ago when I wrote the following :

“He[Putin] will seem to object, at first, at the mere thought of allowing anything but non-military supplies to travel through Russia. Then begrudgingly he will agree to allow a small amount of military supplies to get through. Then more and more until there is critical mass. At that point he will wait for the Afghans to mount an offense, perhaps even coordinate with them and suddenly he will come up with a pretext to cut off the supply lines.”

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